PBOC boosts gold buying with largest monthly purchase since 2023
(Kitco News) – Not only has the People’s Bank of China bought gold for 21 straight months, but the central bank has also continued to make solid tactical moves as prices have dropped nearly 30% from their all-time highs at the start of the year.According to the central bank’s latest reserve data, the PBOC bought 20 tonnes of gold in July—the largest monthly increase since October 2023. Since March, the central bank has increased the pace of its monthly purchases.“This lifts YTD net additions to 60 tonnes, and total gold holdings to 2,366 tonnes,” said Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the World Gold Council (WGC), in a social media post on Friday.While China continues to dominate the marketplace, Gopaul noted that it is not the only central bank increasing its official reserves. In comments on social media, he said that the Czech National Bank increased its reserves by 1.7 tonnes last month. He added that the central bank is another step closer to its 100-tonne target.“YTD net purchases total 12 tonnes, with gold holdings now 84 tonnes,” he said.Gopaul also said that National Bank of Kazakhstan increased its reserves by over 1 tonne last month. He also noted thatAnalysts have said that central bank demand has been a key factor in gold’s ability to hold critical support above $4,000 an ounce.In a note published in late July, commodity analysts at BMO Capital Markets said that they expect growing Chinese demand to be the biggest factor pushing gold prices higher in the second half of the year. They added that most of China’s growing stockpile has gone unreported.“Our new analysis suggests China has accumulated ~30kt of gold above ground, higher than official data, and is now driving ~1/3 of global demand flows,” the analysts said.At the same time, they added that even with its massive undeclared stockpile, China’s appetite for gold is likely to remain insatiable for the foreseeable future, eventually surpassing U.S. reserves.They pointed out that if China wants to achieve its goal of making the yuan an international reserve currency to rival the U.S. dollar (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today’s gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.), it needs to buy significantly more gold in the next five years.Although there is no definitive target for China’s gold holdings, BMO analysts said the country’s money supply provides a useful benchmark. They pointed out that, at current prices, the Federal Reserve’s gold stockpile represents roughly 5% of the U.S. M2 money supply. If China were to achieve the same ratio, its central bank would need to hold about 18,000 tonnes of gold, compared to the roughly 5,222 tonnes it held at the end of last year.“Unsurprisingly, China hasn’t disclosed its ultimate gold accumulation targets, but given its stated ambitions for economic expansion and RMB internationalisation, our view is that achieving the U.S.’s level of holdings is an absolute minimum target, implying another ~2,500-3,000t of purchases, achievable in two to five years depending on method,” the analysts said. “Yet aspirations are likely higher still given the need to establish RMB credibility globally.”See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.
Gold, silver rally as yields fall after surprise jobs loss
(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Friday, as a surprise decline in July payrolls pulled Treasury yields lower and reduced near-term Fed hike expectations. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,352.60 an ounce, up 2.67%, while spot silver was trading at $63.970, up 4.20% on the session.The latest positioning shift is now centered on whether the Fed can keep a hawkish bias after softer labor data. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote. The chair’s press conference leaned against renewed forward guidance and emphasized that nominal and real yields had already moved materially higher between meetings. Friday’s payrolls print reversed part of that rate pressure: nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to about 4.60% from 4.67% just before the release and Fed funds futures cut the implied probability of a September hike to 44.0% from 54.7%.The Strait of Hormuz remains a two-sided macro input for gold. A deal between Iran and Oman is being discussed, but the unresolved issue is control over traffic and fees, with Washington rejecting Iranian charges on ships while Tehran insists the waterway will not revert to a fully international operating model. The strait previously handled roughly one-fifth of traded oil and natural gas, and Brent crude has traded as high as $113 during the conflict. The immediate market effect Friday was mixed: crude eased after Thursday’s rally as traders weighed deal headlines, but the unresolved U.S.-Iran framework is still supporting a geopolitical premium in gold and keeping energy-led inflation risk in the Fed discussion.This week’s U.S.-Japan yen intervention also remains a key cross-asset factor. The coordinated yen-buying operation was the first joint U.S.-Japan move of that kind since 1998 and followed a slide in the yen to a 40-year low. The intervention briefly pressured the dollar and helped gold through the FX channel, but the broader dollar reaction has since been uneven: DXY was softer after the payrolls miss, while traders assessed whether official yen support changes reserve-market behavior or simply slows one leg of dollar strength.Global markets were mixed after the jobs data. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, Dow futures gained 0.33%, Germany’s DAX was up 1.0% in midday European trade, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.1%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.6% and Taiwan’s Taiex lost 0.4%. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices weaker and trading around $76.78 a barrel, while Brent crude was lower after Thursday’s rally. The U.S. dollar index is weaker. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.6% area.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,372.40 to $4,450.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,500.00 and then $4,494.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,228.90, with deeper downside targets at $4,120.00 and then $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,372.40 and then at $4,450.00. First support is seen at $4,228.90 and then at $4,120.00.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $65.22 to $70.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $72.00 and then $70.00 to $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $61.05, with deeper downside targets at $55.00 and then $45.00 to $50.00. First resistance is seen at $65.22 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $61.05 and then at $55.00.
Now is the time to buy gold; BCA sees bullish opportunity as real yields peak
(Kitco News) – Gold’s recent correction has likely run its course as the key macro headwinds that pressured the precious metal are beginning to fade, according to one Canadian research firm, which argues that real interest rates have likely peaked and the U.S. dollar will eventually turn from a headwind into a tailwind for bullion.After establishing a neutral position in Spring, Commodity analysts at BCA Research now see attractive value and are recommending investors start accumulating gold with a stop-loss at $3,900 an ounce.”The worst of real rates’ headwind to gold is likely behind us,” the firm said in its latest report, adding that while geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East could still create short-term volatility, its base case is for U.S. real rates to remain broadly stable over the coming months, helping gold establish a bottom.Speaking with Kitco News, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodities strategist at BCA Research, said investors should focus less on inflation and more on the outlook for real yields.”The recommendation to buy now basically embeds that real rates and the U.S. dollar are not going to rise further from here, and that headwind is already gone,” she said, noting that gold has held the $4,000-an-ounce level despite recent macro headwinds.BCA’s report argues that gold has returned to trading primarily as a macro asset after several years during which central bank buying overwhelmed traditional market drivers. The research firm believes real rates and the U.S. dollar have once again become the dominant forces determining bullion prices, while central bank purchases now provide a floor under the market rather than acting as the primary catalyst for further gains.Although markets have priced in additional Federal Reserve tightening, Ibrahim said she sees little risk that policymakers become more hawkish than current expectations.”Even if the Fed does hike, I don’t see them hiking by more than what’s already priced in,” she said. “The odds of that are quite low” unless oil prices experience a significant and sustained surge that pushes inflation expectations materially higher.That view underpins BCA’s bullish stance on gold. Ibrahim said gold does not require imminent rate cuts to rally—only confirmation that the peak in real yields is already behind the market.”The headwind from opportunity costs is going to ease, and it’s going to turn into a tailwind,” she said. “Not because the U.S. economy is going to crack, but because the tightening is already priced in.”BCA also pushes back against the common perception that gold is primarily an inflation hedge. Instead, the firm argues that inflation only benefits bullion when it undermines confidence in the Federal Reserve and suppresses real yields.”Gold’s ability to act as an inflation hedge is overstated. Real rates, rather than inflation, determine gold’s performance,” the report said. As long as inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Fed maintains credibility, higher inflation initially weighs on gold by pushing real yields higher.Even if another oil-driven inflation shock emerges, Ibrahim expects any rise in real rates to prove temporary.”If we do get a price spike and inflation spike, then probably very quickly the attention is going to shift from it being an inflation story to being a growth story,” she said. That transition would eventually cap the Fed’s hawkishness and establish “a bottom for gold prices.”The firm also sees longer-term support coming from structural forces, including reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar and persistent central bank buying. While BCA believes the pace of official-sector purchases has likely peaked, it argues that ongoing buying continues to justify elevated gold prices and should prevent a return to 2022 price levels absent a shift by central banks to become net sellers.Over the longer term, BCA also expects the greenback to weaken as structural pressures build.”The greenback will shift from being a headwind to a tailwind to the yellow metal,” the report concluded.
Investors take profits in gold and silver as oil, yields rise after Hormuz deal doubts
(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices were weaker in late U.S. trading Thursday, as rising oil prices, firmer Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar prompted investors to take some profits after Wednesday’s breakout rally. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,243.40 an ounce, down 0.07% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $61.520, down 0.64%.U.S. equities closed lower as oil rebounded and traders moved back into pre-payroll defensive positioning. The S&P 500 fell 13.59 points, or 0.2%, to 7,709.96, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 464.02 points, or 0.9%, to 53,885.10 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 15.09 points, or 0.1%, to 26,348.35. The Russell 2000 lost 17.64 points, or 0.6%, to 3,001.55. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 closed up 0.2% at 658.19, Germany’s DAX gained 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.35% and Britain’s FTSE 100 closed down 0.19%, leaving the session mixed after early strength faded.The latest U.S. data kept the market’s post-Fed positioning centered on resilience rather than recession. Initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 199,000 in the week ended Aug. 1, still below consensus, while continuing claims increased to 1.8 million. Second-quarter nonfarm productivity rose at a 1.4% annualized pace, above expectations, after a revised 0.8% rise in the first quarter. The July ISM Services PMI printed at 54.1, below the 54.5 consensus but still in expansion territory, while ADP private payrolls earlier in the week showed only 44,000 jobs added in July, down from 95,000 in June. Taken together, the data left traders leaning toward a still-firm labor market with slower hiring, rather than a clean dovish pivot.At the same time, global markets continue to feel the effects of the Federal Reserve’s July monetary policy meeting. The Fed held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29 by a 9-3 vote. The statement said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, job gains had kept pace with the workforce and inflation remained elevated relative to the 2% goal. After the press conference and this week’s data, rate expectations remain sensitive to Friday’s payrolls print. Market-implied odds of a September 25-basis-point rate hike were near 56.9% Thursday afternoon, up from 54.4% Wednesday but below last week’s 63.4%, while the 10-year Treasury yield moved back toward the 4.6% to 4.7% area. That mix kept real-yield pressure in the gold market even as confidence and geopolitical hedges limited the downside.The Strait of Hormuz remains the central geopolitical risk input for metals, oil and rates. Iran and Oman are said to be close to finalizing an arrangement on shipping routes, but the U.S. position remains the binding constraint if any deal appears to give Tehran formal control over commercial navigation. The Strait handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas flows before the war, making even a partial reopening a material deflationary impulse for energy, while a breakdown in talks keeps the risk premium in crude and Treasuries alive. On Thursday, the market traded the second scenario: Brent crude rose 3.8% to $82.49 a barrel, WTI climbed to about $77.29 and higher oil-fed inflation concerns weighed against gold’s safe-haven bid.Japan’s yen intervention remains part of the gold story because it has shifted the trade from a simple rate-market model to a confidence model. The coordinated yen-buying operation helped pull USD/JPY off four-decade extremes, but the broader read for bullion is that governments are becoming more active in managing currency and bond-market stress. Michele Schneider, chief market strategist at MarketGauge, told Kitco News that gold’s rally reflected a growing lack of investor confidence, with the yen intervention acting as the “real spark” behind the move. She said gold’s appeal can persist even when rates are not moving cleanly in its favor, because the trade is increasingly tied to questions about policy credibility and financial-system stability. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $77.29 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.49. The U.S. dollar index was firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was trading near the 4.6% to 4.7% area.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,300 to $4,380 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,400. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,180, with deeper downside targets at $4,156 and then the $4,000 breakout area. First resistance is seen at $4,300 and then at $4,360. First support is seen at $4,180 and then at $4,156.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.00 to $62.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $65.00 and then $66.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.00, with deeper downside targets at $57.00 and then $56.00. First resistance is seen at $62.00 and then at $65.00. Next support is seen at $60.00 and then at $57.00.
Gold’s breakout was the buy signal, but no new record this year, analyst says
(Kitco News) – Florian Grummes has raised his invested position from 50% to 80%. He is buying juniors, not producers. And he does not think gold sees a new high in 2026.Florian Grummes went to bed with gold near $4,075. He woke to find it roughly $65 higher..embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }By Wednesday, he had done something he had avoided for half a year. He put money back to work.”I’ve been taking a break basically for the last six months, and I think it’s time to be really invested and be bullish again,” Grummes told Kitco News.The founder and managing director of Midas Touch Consulting, who has spent more than 25 years in financial markets, said he has lifted his allocation from 50% invested to 80% invested. He framed it as the end of a deliberate pause rather than a change of heart about the metal. He had been bullish the whole time. He simply had not been buying.What changed was not gold. It was Japan.On Aug. 3, Japan’s Finance Ministry said it planned to use the Federal Reserve’s FIMA repo facility for future currency interventions. The program is not new. It lets approved foreign central banks borrow dollars against their US Treasury holdings instead of selling them outright, and it is capped at $60 billion per institution. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would consider expanding it, calling the tool an important backstop.Grummes read that as a policy decision dressed as a technical one.”It’s back to money printing,” he said, comparing the direction of travel to the dollar swap lines extended during the rescue of Credit Suisse.Not everyone gets there. The facility is collateralized, and the amount Tokyo can draw is limited by the Treasuries it holds. Analysts have argued that makes it unlikely to change the market’s read on how far Japan can actually go.Grummes is not persuaded that the distinction matters much. He also pointed to the late-July selloff in large-cap technology as a sign that stress was moving through the system rather than being absorbed by it. The Magnificent Seven shed roughly $797 billion in a single session on July 23, their worst day since April 2025, and remain down about $2 trillion from their late-May peak. The S&P 500 posted its first losing July since 2014.The metals have since moved hard in the other direction.Gold traded at $4,255 an ounce Wednesday afternoon, up 4.38% and within $11 of its session high of $4,266.10, according to Kitco’s spot data. Silver was at $62.05, up 4.45%, after reaching $62.89. Platinum, which spent part of the session in the red, had turned higher at $1,734. Palladium was up 1.66%.The gains held on a day when almost nothing else cooperated. The S&P 500 hovered near a record after a four-day rally that added $3.7 trillion in value, according to Bloomberg. Oil edged lower after Iran said it had reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC the central bank should start raising rates now to deal with inflation he said remains too high.None of that is supposed to be good for gold. Gold went up anyway.Grummes had the move at his fingertips.”Today the high was 4,265 already. On Monday we’ve seen the low at 4,020, so that’s a $240 move in just two days,” he said. By his reading, it was the highest gold had traded since the middle of June. A target, and a ceilingHere is where Grummes parts company with most of the sector.He sees gold reaching $4,500 this summer, a level that sits close to the 200-day moving average near $4,490. Clear it, he said, and the next zone is $4,800 to $4,900. His silver figure is $70.Then he stops.”I don’t see new all-time highs this year,” Grummes said.That is a long way below gold’s record of $5,589.38, set Jan. 28, and it is an unusual thing for a bull to volunteer. He went further, saying he is not certain the correction’s final low is behind the market.He was candid about his own timing, too. Grummes said he had been early on his physical buying and had averaged into weakness rather than waiting for a bottom he could not see.”I was a bit early at $4,400. I added at $4,100, and then now around $4,000,” he said.Buying the winners, not the bargainsThe new money went into junior miners rather than established producers. Grummes disclosed positions in Silver Tiger Metals and First Mining Gold.His screen inverts the usual instinct. Most investors go shopping in the wreckage. Grummes looks for companies that have already outrun the metal.”Then you have the proof this stock is running up if gold moves higher,” he said.Track record, management and project quality come next, along with stops and sizing. He said he uses “stops and money management tools to make sure that a nice gain doesn’t become a loser again.”The bigger reason for favoring juniors is a wave of consolidation he believes has not begun. Producers are generating serious cash even at $4,000 gold, and Grummes expects that money to find its way into acquisitions over the next one to three years.”We haven’t seen any crazy M&A activity yet,” he said.For investors sitting on junior positions down 30% to 60%, his advice was blunt: average down, if the position size lets you.Platinum, and the shift eastGrummes holds platinum alongside gold and silver, and he thinks the current market is generous. He put the attractive zone below $2,000 and called $1,500 to $1,700 “great entry prices,” noting how far the relationship has moved over his career.”Back then you basically had to pay two ounces of gold for one ounce of platinum,” he said.His attention on the physical market has also drifted away from Singapore and toward Hong Kong and Shanghai, which he described as a developing counterweight to London and New York. He pointed to China’s retreat from retail paper gold as evidence of where policy is steering demand. Several of the country’s largest banks, among them ICBC, Postal Savings Bank, Ping An and China Construction Bank, stopped offering retail products linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange after settlement on July 24. Physical buying, gold ETFs and institutional trading on the exchange were untouched.Twenty-five years of watching screens has left him with one durable observation.”Most of the music has been playing in the Asian sessions,” he said. The Western hours, more often, are where the selling shows up.What he will not touchGrummes said he is staying away from short positions, which he called “the anger trade,” along with semiconductors, artificial intelligence equities and speculative cryptocurrencies. The caution on chips has company: semiconductor stocks fell roughly 22% in July.On bitcoin, trading near $64,000 on Wednesday, he said he believes the market is bottoming around $60,000.Watch the full interview with Florian Grummes on Kitco News, where he walks through his exact filter for junior mining stocks, his price targets for gold and silver, and the one trade he says investors should avoid right now.
Gold’s rally has further to run as debt, de-dollarization fuel secular bull market: Gabelli’s Mancini
(Kitco News) – Gold is attracting renewed investor interest as prices climbed above $4,250 an ounce on Wednesday, marking a seven-week high. While the precious metal still faces short-term headwinds from monetary policy uncertainty, one fund manager argues that the powerful forces underpinning gold’s secular bull market remain firmly in place.In an interview with Kitco News, Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund (GOLDX), said investors continue to view gold as a cyclical asset, treating its record highs earlier this year as the peak of the current cycle. However, he argued that gold’s long-term advance is being driven by structural factors, including persistent geopolitical uncertainty, rising government debt, central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar and eroding confidence in fiat currencies.”The market’s trading it like a cyclical commodity even though it’s not,” Mancini said, noting that unlike industrial metals such as copper or iron ore, gold’s value is not tied to economic consumption but to its role as a monetary asset.Not only is Mancini bullish on gold, but he also sees significant potential for mining equitiesBecause investors continue to price gold miners as though gold’s rally is temporary, Mancini believes the sector remains deeply undervalued despite record cash generation. He said that if investors expect gold prices to remain near current levels—or continue climbing—then mining equities offer significantly greater upside than owning bullion alone.”I think in this environment, if you want exposure to gold because you think it’s going to go up, then you should own the miners instead of the physical metal,” he said.Mancini noted that major producers are generating record profits with all-in sustaining costs around $2,000 an ounce while gold prices remain above $4,000. Those margins, he said, have fundamentally changed how investors should evaluate mining companies. Whereas relatively small cost overruns once had a meaningful impact on earnings, today’s elevated gold prices provide miners with significantly larger cash flow cushions.He added that many senior producers are trading at roughly 10 to 11 times earnings despite generating historically strong free cash flow, valuations he considers inexpensive given the current gold price environment.According to Mancini, the disconnect stems from investors continuing to value gold miners as though the industry is approaching the top of a traditional commodity cycle. He compared current valuations to those typically assigned to base-metal producers such as copper miners during periods of peak demand, when markets anticipate declining prices and shrinking margins.”I just think the market needs to stop pricing the gold stocks like they’re at a peak multiple,” he said.Instead, he argued that investors need confidence that gold’s rally has not run its course. Gold prices do not necessarily have to surge to new record highs for mining stocks to outperform, he said. Rather, the market simply needs to recognize that current price levels are sustainable and that gold is likely to continue trending higher over time.Although Mancini remains constructive on gold’s long-term outlook, he acknowledged that the metal could experience additional short-term volatility depending on monetary policy expectations.He said the biggest near-term risk would be a resurgence in inflation driven by higher oil prices, which could force the Federal Reserve to consider another interest-rate hike. However, he expects that risk to diminish if energy prices moderate.”I think everything that drove the gold price up to $5,000 is still in play,” he said.Among those drivers, Mancini pointed to continued central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar, expanding government debt burdens and the broader trend toward de-dollarization.”I think those trends are all going in the right direction,” he said. “I think we do go back to $5,000.”Mancini added that while another Fed rate hike could delay gold’s advance, it would not derail the longer-term trend because tighter monetary policy would also weigh on economic growth.He also dismissed concerns that higher energy costs would materially damage mining profitability unless accompanied by a sharp decline in gold prices. Even if oil prices were to rise, he said the impact on miners’ margins would likely be modest given their current profitability.”The real story for gold is the direction of the gold price and whether the market comes to the conclusion that these companies shouldn’t be trading at peak multiples,” he said.Ultimately, Mancini said that investors are making a fundamental mistake by viewing gold through the same lens as industrial commodities.Unlike copper or iron ore, gold is primarily a monetary asset whose value is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical forces rather than industrial demand. That distinction, he said, means the precious metal’s long-term trajectory should be viewed as a secular trend rather than a cyclical one.He added that one of the most important themes supporting gold is the growing recognition that physical bullion represents an asset with no counterparty risk.”Gold is an asset which is nobody’s liability, and it’s not replicable,” he said. “People have seen why that’s so important relative to what’s going on with other fiat currencies.”Given ongoing concerns surrounding sovereign debt, persistent geopolitical tensions and declining confidence in paper currencies, Mancini said he sees little chance that the structural forces supporting gold will reverse anytime soon.”I think it’s almost impossible for that trend to reverse,” he said.
Gold steadies as oil slump cools inflation pressure, equities rally
(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are higher in late U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp drop in crude oil and lower Treasury yields offset reduced safe-haven demand tied to tentative U.S.-Iran diplomacy. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,056.60 an ounce, up 0.37%, while spot silver was trading at $57.940, up 0.87% on the session.The post-Fed setup remains rate-sensitive. The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% last Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference left markets with a hawkish-hold read: no immediate tightening, but little comfort that inflation risks are fading fast enough to rule out another move. June PCE inflation later softened to 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%, while initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 and July ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022. Futures markets were still pricing a roughly two-thirds chance of a September rate hike, but that probability eased from pre-meeting levels as Monday’s oil selloff pulled yields lower.The Strait of Hormuz risk premium has cooled, not cleared. President Donald Trump held off planned strikes on Iran and pushed for talks aimed at reopening the waterway and limiting Tehran’s nuclear program, while Iran denied direct U.S. talks and said discussions with Oman over passage through the Strait were continuing. The market impact was clearest in crude: WTI fell to the high-$78-to-$79 area and Brent dropped to the low-$83 area after July’s war premium had carried Brent above $90. For gold, the read-through is mixed: less immediate haven demand from Gulf escalation, but lower oil-linked inflation risk, softer yields and a weaker dollar reduce some of the macro pressure on bullion.North American equities closed sharply higher as lower oil and yields lifted risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600.50, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to a record 53,178.41 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.13% to 25,913.90. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 2,981.91. Communication services led the U.S. session, while energy lagged as crude prices fell about 5%.European equities also ended higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% at 652.09 and hovering near Friday’s record high. Germany’s DAX rose 1.45% to 26,001.31, clearing 26,000 for the first time, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as AstraZeneca weighed on the U.K. index. Travel, leisure and defense shares gained as the crude selloff eased energy-cost concerns, while European energy stocks fell.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $78.85 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $82.91. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the U.S.-Iran diplomacy push “a step in the right direction” earlier in the session, while cautioning that the next week remains uncertain. That framing fits the metals tape: gold and silver held bid, but neither market has yet delivered a clean breakout from the Fed-and-Hormuz consolidation ranges.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,087.00 to $4,116.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,150.00 and then $4,200.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,051.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,021.00 and then $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,087.00 and then at $4,116.00. First support is seen at $4,051.00 and then at $4,021.00.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $59.14 to $60.09 area, with a move above that zone targeting $60.99 and then $64.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.82, with deeper downside targets at $56.68 and then $55.00. First resistance is seen at $59.14 and then at $60.09. Next support is seen at $57.82 and then at $56.68.
Gold revaluation would pay Washington, not private holders, historian says
(Kitco News) – America’s gold is still valued at $42.22 an ounce on the federal books, more than $1 trillion below market. The fund built from the last revaluation was buying yen on Friday.The United States values its gold at $42.2222 an ounce.Not close to that. Exactly that. The figure is fixed by statute; it was set in 1973, but nobody has been able to buy an ounce of gold at that price since Richard Nixon was in office..embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }The government reports holding 261,498,926 fine troy ounces, roughly 8,133 metric tons. At the statutory price, which comes to about $11.04 billion, according to Treasury’s Fiscal Data disclosures. Gold was bid at $4,051.50 an ounce late Monday afternoon, about 96 times the official number. The same metal is worth more than $1 trillion at market.A gap that size has a way of attracting attention, and every few years someone in Washington proposes closing it.Economic historian Phillip Magness has a suggestion for anyone wondering who would collect the money. Look at what happened the last time.”It’s always the private sector that gets the bad end of it,” Magness told Kitco News.Asked whether there is any version in which the person holding coins participates, he did not elaborate much. “Not really.”What the last one looked likeFranklin Roosevelt ordered Americans to surrender their monetary gold in April 1933, with limited exemptions for jewelry and collections. The Treasury paid the official price of $20.67 an ounce.Magness described the order as one improvisation among many.”He entered into office not really knowing what to do, and it was kind of like throwing things at the wall to see what stuck,” he said. Roosevelt inherited an economy Magness argues had already been damaged by tight money, the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 and a 1932 income tax increase. “These are just one, two, three steps of how to make a recession into a great depression.”Breaking the gold link did more than loosen credit, in his reading.”It unchained the U.S. federal government from a gold-backed dollar,” Magness said. “That also allows you to effectively revalue the dollar, to engage in kind of a backdoor inflationary scheme, and use that to sustain all sorts of government spending.”Very little of the metal had to be collected door to door. Most of it was already sitting in banks, and the banks did the work.”Part of the enforcement comes about by the government ordering those financial institutions to hand over the gold and convert the assets,” Magness said.Then came the part that pays.Congress passed the Gold Reserve Act on Jan. 30, 1934. Roosevelt fixed the official price at $35 an ounce the next day. The official gold price rose about 69%. The dollar’s official gold value fell about 41%.The Treasury booked a gain of roughly $2.8 billion on the difference, according to Federal Reserve historical records. In 1934 money. Two billion of it capitalized the Exchange Stabilization Fund, giving the Treasury a pool it could use in gold, currency and securities markets without going through the Federal Reserve.The Americans who had handed in gold at $20.67 nine months earlier received none of it.They also could not simply buy it back. The Supreme Court upheld the cancellation of gold clauses in private contracts on Feb. 18, 1935, and private ownership stayed restricted for four decades. Public Law 93-373, signed by President Gerald Ford in August 1974, took effect on Dec. 31 of that year. Ford revoked Roosevelt’s order the same day.A few people found the door before it reopened, Magness said, by buying gold where it was still legal to own.”A wise investor, someone who read the gold market and then noticed what was afoot in the U.S. government and moved some of their assets into physical gold holdings, they made bank on that relative to the dollar,” he said. The 1934 fund is still tradingThe Exchange Stabilization Fund is not a museum piece. The Treasury’s currency operations still run through it, and it was in the market last week.On Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought yen on the Treasury’s behalf while Japanese authorities intervened on their own account. It was the first coordinated yen-buying operation by the two governments since 1998, and it came with the yen near its weakest level against the dollar in close to four decades. The dollar closed at 157.40 yen in New York, having traded above 162 before the intervention.Ninety-two years after the revaluation that paid for it, the fund was buying currency on a Friday afternoon.Why the number survived, and why the idea returnsThe $42.22 is a leftover from a system that no longer exists.The Smithsonian Agreement of December 1971 set the official price at $38. A second devaluation in February 1973 moved it to $42.2222. Then the fixed-rate system collapsed, currencies floated, the Bretton Woods obligations were formally ended in 1976, and the number simply stayed where it was. It has outlived the arrangement that produced it by half a century.”This is one of the great mysteries that comes out of the Nixon era,” Magness said. “It’s really another hodgepodge of policies.”In practice, revaluing would mean marking up the gold certificates the Treasury has issued to the Federal Reserve against that metal, crediting the Treasury with the difference without selling an ounce. The proposal surfaces periodically and does not advance. One current instance sits in a bitcoin reserve bill introduced in May by Rep. Nick Begich, R-Alaska, which lists revaluing those certificates as one of five mechanisms the government might study for funding bitcoin purchases without adding to the deficit. It directs a study rather than a revaluation, and has had no action since it was referred to committee.Asked whether replacing the number with the market price would accomplish anything, Magness was unimpressed by the accounting entry.”It’s almost entirely on the market side, because the accounting figure is just a number on paper, and you cannot confuse markets through accounting gimmicks,” he said. “If you put a fixed number on paper but the market is actually valuing this at something very differently than the fixed number, as soon as the market is allowed to operate, the price will change.”As for why the idea keeps resurfacing at all, he pointed at the alternatives.”Taxes are extremely unpopular. A great way to get yourself defeated in the next election is to raise taxes,” Magness said. “So one way to work around this, though, is currency manipulation, is to take on massive amounts of debt.”Total public debt outstanding reached $39.84 trillion on July 30, according to Treasury. Magness, who put it “right on the verge of $40 trillion,” argues that debts of that size get serviced partly through the slow erosion of what the currency is worth.He sees the same pattern in the growth of the central bank’s authorities, which widened in the 1930s, again after 1971, and again in 2008.”It’s like a one-way ratchet,” Magness said. “The new power claimed by the Federal Reserve never goes away.”Asked when the nation’s gold was last independently audited, he declined to guess. “I actually don’t know the exact final last date of an audit, other than there has not been one in a long time.”Central banks, meanwhile, are still buying. They took in 288.9 metric tons in the second quarter, up 62% from a year earlier and a record for a second quarter, according to the World Gold Council. First-half purchases of 345 tons were still the weakest since 2022.The condition to watchMagness does not expect 1933 to happen again, and he was direct about why.”I don’t think we have a risk right now of going back to another 1933, 1934 period where the president of the United States declares on a whim that he’s going to confiscate gold,” he said. “Some of the aftermath of the statutes that have been put in place are more of a buffer against that, because we have codified and re-legalized gold holdings in the United States.”The protection, in other words, is the law that was passed after the fact.Asked to name the one condition that made the original action possible, he did not hesitate.”The sense of emergency,” Magness said. “Always be wary when politicians are claiming that there’s emergencies afoot.”The rest, he said, is a question of what a holder can put out of reach.”The more you can insulate yourself from the whims of politicians, the better. Some of the things that are insulated from those pretexts are private holdings of precious metal.”And then the line he closed on, which is the reason the 1934 arithmetic still matters.”It’s a warning from history that this has been done before. So be on the lookout.”Phillip Magness is an economic historian and the David J. Theroux Chair in Political Economy at the Independent Institute.Watch the full interview above for Magness on the design of Bretton Woods, the 1971 Nixon shock, why Spain grew poorer despite receiving enormous quantities of New World bullion, what would actually have to happen before a revaluation became money the government could spend, and the Fort Knox audit question.
Wall Street trisected on gold’s near-term prospects, Main Street bulls in minority as market looks to July payrolls for direction
(Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another choppy week, as dip-buying and softer inflation data helped the precious metal defend the $4,000 level, while the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold, rising Treasury yields, and renewed oil-driven inflation concerns capped the rebound.Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,051.51 per ounce on Sunday evening, and pushed higher through Monday as traders continued to buy weakness near the lower end of gold’s recent range. The move stalled Tuesday as markets turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with elevated oil prices and persistent inflation concerns keeping yields supported.Gold broke below $4,050 on Wednesday morning and briefly lost the $4,000 support level, with spot prices ultimately setting their weekly low at $3,995.90 per ounce. The yellow metal recovered before the Fed held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three dissentions in favor of a hike gave little reassurance that policy easing was coming, with buyers stepping back in as traders digested the Fed’s latest message and positioned for upcoming inflation data.The strongest rebound came Thursday after softer PCE inflation helped cool some of the market’s rate-hike concerns, pushing gold back above $4,100. Spot gold ultimately set its weekly high at $4,119.82 per ounce at midday Thursday, but the rally faded Friday after the Employment Cost Index came in slightly hotter than expected, lifting Treasury yields and pressuring the metal into the close.After failing to hold above $4,100, spot gold was last trading at $4,048.40 per ounce Friday afternoon, leaving the metal nearly flat but slightly lower on the week.The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street evenly divided between bulls, bears, and the fence, while Main Street sentiment slid out of bullish territory after another failed breakout.“Unchanged,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “There needs to be more back and forth in the price until markets have come to a conclusion on the outlook for monetary tightening ahead. The market also needs clarity on the conflict in the Middle East; when that ends, the dollar will lose its safe-haven premium, and that will also be positive for gold. For now, though, the market needs clarity before moving convincingly higher.”“Sideways,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “Nothing has changed with the gold market. And that’s what makes its continued sideways trend more interesting. Investors continue to hop around from sector to sector, looking for the next volatile spike rally or selloff, while central banks around the world continue to buy gold. Of the two, the latter is the better indicator of the economic trouble always lurking just under the surface. And we know where the epicenter of that trouble is.”“For now, I’m expecting the December futures contract to yo-yo back and forth across $4,129.50 on its daily close only chart, the midpoint between the low daily close of $4,048.70 (July 16) and $4,210.30 (July 22),” Newsom said.“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “The 4k level still doesn’t look like it wants to give way in spot gold. The run in yields is pretty much the negative scenario, but despite that, buyers have still held the line at 4k, so I’m going to stick with my long-term bias until logic dictates a shift.”“I am neutral on Gold for the coming week,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “It appears to still be consolidating around $4,000.”“Unchanged,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left U.S. Interest rates unchanged. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index moderated slightly. The conflict in Iran is spreading to new fronts. As a result of all of this and a slightly stronger U.S. dollar, I don’t see gold moving sustainably higher just yet.”“Support at $4,000 sets the bottom end of the range,” Checkan added. “The factors above cap the high end. We have an extended opportunity to buy gold well while it lasts.”Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker at StoneX Group, told Kitco News that he’s very bullish on gold and silver now, as he doesn’t believe rate hikes are on the table anytime soon, but he expects one more break lower before the rally resumes.“With the Fed announcement, even though there’s three dissensions, I think it’s positive for gold,” he said. “It opens the door for a September rate hike, but I don’t know… the way the Fed’s moving, and the comments after the fact, I got the impression that they’re not going to be doing any rate hikes over the next couple of months despite the inflation numbers that we are having. It’s a tough spot here to start raising rates for them politically. And I don’t think that they’re going to move in that direction.”“Overall, I am very bullish for metals. Despite the three objections, I think it still bodes well for gold and silver,” Haberkorn said. “However, with the Iran war going on and seeming like it’s picking up again, I think for next week, gold and silver are going to remain under pressure, and will continue to stay in this sideways range market.”Haberkorn said he’d actually like to see gold break below its recent lows, because he believes this could provide the catalyst for the next leg higher.“It feels like gold needs one washout to $3,800 before it can get its footing back, to show some support,” he said. “Oil is up again today and putting pressure on metals. Equities are a little softer here, so it feels like risk-off considering what’s going on in the energy markets.”Haberkorn said he doesn’t think a September rate hike would fly at the Fed, for political reasons.“I don’t think it’s in the cards right now,” he said. “I think the pressure on them if they start hiking rates in September… I know they’re supposedly independent, but I don’t think they have it in them to do a hike here coming up in September.”On the other hand, Haberkorn said Warsh would probably be fine with the markets pricing in a hike and then being surprised with another hold, though he or other FOMC members may try to lay the groundwork for this despite his insistence on no forward guidance.“I think he’ll be happy to surprise markets with no hike, and have messaging along with it,” he said. “He was put in by Trump. Trump wants cuts, actual cuts, now. [Warsh] does have a board, and he’s got to get around a board and all that. I think he’s going to politically toe the line here for the time being, and keep rates unchanged, unless some situation arises.”“It feels like the Iran war is going to heat up here a little bit more, and energies are going to trade a little higher,” he said. “I think gold and silver will start acting like gold and silver at some point, and be a flight-to-safety trade, because I think people will see the Fed behind the eight ball right now. They should raise rates to tamp down inflation. But, politically, are they able to raise rates?”“The Fed’s stuck in a bad spot for the moment,” he added. “I don’t think we have the appetite to raise rates right now.”“I think to have one more washout, just on the expectations that there is a hike coming in September – which I don’t think will happen – would be beneficial for this for the longer term, for the bulls,” he said. “I think there is a floor around four thousand, but a dip below there I think would be bought up fairly quickly, and a dip being to about $3,800, out of this channel.”Haberkorn said he sees metals trending lower in the near term as energy prices rise once again, but believes gold could still break to the upside at some point without this final dip. “If it doesn’t work out that way, if it breaks out of this channel and goes higher, I’m willing to adjust accordingly, and to get in at a higher price if I have to, around $4,300 or $4,400 or something along those lines.”“At some point we will break out of this channel here,” he added. “On expectations for a Fed hike, it’s more likely that we break down to the downside for a short term-move. Then the Fed doesn’t cut rates in September, and we see this big move start up for the fall in precious metals, like what we saw last year.”This week, 17 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street sentiment split into three nearly equal parts after an equally indecisive performance from the yellow metal. Five experts, or 29%, expected to see gold prices gain ground during the week ahead, while six others, representing 35% of the total, predicted a price decline. The remaining six analysts saw the yellow metal continuing its sideways chop next week. Meanwhile, 184 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors losing their bullish majority after gold stayed stuck in its recent channel. 87 retail traders, or 47%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while 55 others, or 30%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 42 investors, representing 23% of the total, expected to see further consolidation during the week ahead.Next week’s economic news calendar revolves around employment, with multiple measures of the U.S. job market coming out, culminating in July’s nonfarm payrolls report. Markets will also receive key services and manufacturing sector surveys.The week kicks off Monday morning with the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI for July, and Tuesday morning brings the first look at employment with the JOLTS job reportThen on Wednesday, traders will be watching July’s ADP employment data, followed by the ISM Services PMI, with weekly jobless claims released on Thursday morning.The week wraps up with the Friday morning release of Nonfarm Payrolls for July.“Gold has not proved itself,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “It traded mostly sideways last week in a $3996-$4116 range. It held above $4000 for the past two sessions. It fell about 0.60% this past week, despite a weaker USD and softer short-term US rates. The resumption of hostilities in the Middle East failed to spur a sustained rally in oil (Sept WTI snapped a three-week 30% advance), and while this seemed to reduce the need of oil importers to sell oil, it failed to help the yellow metal. It looks weak going into Aug. The year’s low was recorded on June 30 near $3943.”Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, told Kitco News that the $4,000 per ounce support level is looking pretty firm, and the gold price is likely to move higher in the near term as it follows seasonal trading patterns.“I don’t think many people want to sell below $4,000,” he said. “It’s been a stopper on the downside. Of course, we’ve slipped below it a few times, but we came right back up above it.”Lusk said even though gold is still negative on the year, there’s a potential seasonality play coming into focus. He said he expects the yellow metal to make some gains in the next few weeks before backing off a little bit in September. “Then, you buy it back in October going into Diwali.”He said the November midterms represent a risk to the seasonal trade, but added that the weeks leading into Christmas, then through Chinese New Year and Valentine’s Day in February should provide support for gold prices.On the market’s expectations for a September rate hike, Lusk said he thinks that oil prices will come down one way or another as we head into year-end, and this will ease the inflationary pressures, making rate hikes moot. He said that the U.S. and Iran will either come to a lasting agreement which ends the threat to oil shipments in the region, or the various workarounds such as pipelines and other shipping lanes will be scaled up and reinforced, blunting the impact of Iran’s attacks.“That’s going to take a lot of the inflationary pressures out of the market,” he said, “so you’re going to have less of a need [for rate hikes].”Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to decline further next week.“Despite some upward momentum during the week, gold has failed to establish a solid uptrend,” he wrote. “The current sideways movement, fluctuating between $4,000 and $4,200, is the best the bulls can manage. Moreover, over the past week, gold has decoupled from equities, as the latter’s recovery rally at the end of the week took place against a backdrop of a steady sell-off in gold.”“Last week’s narrative remains valid: gold bulls are unable to turn the market towards growth after three years of gains, but they are also reluctant to relinquish the psychologically important $4,000 mark for long,” Kuptsikevich said. “Uptrends in gold often begin in August–September, but in bear markets, September has also frequently seen intensified selling.”“Another point to note is that if gold closes the week below the spot price of $4,007, this will mark the fifth consecutive month of decline,” he added. “In 2022, the run was longer but not quite as deep, and the closest parallel would be 2012–2013, when an 8-month decline of one-third was followed by two years of a bear market, albeit with a less pronounced fall.”Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see gold prices fall next week.“Lower UNLESS we break decently above 41397 (-4.5 tics per/hour starting at 9:20 am EST) —a ‘decent’ penetration is $18.6 until the close,” he wrote. “In a Higher timeframe: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. This is ON HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 56268 high and rolled over $1,651.1. This is ON HOLD. On a medium timeframe basis: The trade below 52554 projected this down $740 (+)—we attained $1,300.0. The trade below 52036 brought in $1,248.2 of pressure. The trade below 51606 brought in $1,205.2 of pressure. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 49177 high after a pullback and rolled over $962.3. The break below 48185 projected this down $185 (+)—we attained $863.1. The trade below 47923 projected this down $205 (+)—we attained $836.9. The break below 47420 brought in $786.6 of pressure. On 5/15 we left a medium bearish reversal—we have come off $597.8 from 45532. We held exhaustion with a 44036 high and rolled over $448.2. On 6/18 we left a minor bearish reversal—we have come off $323.9 from the 42793 open. These are ON HOLD. We held macro exhaustion with a 39554 low and bounced $260.1—if this holds and we start a bona fide bullish correction, the minimum target is 49636. This is ON HOLD.”“On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion at 41795-2324 with a 42155 high and rolled over $252.5,” Moor said. “This is ON HOLD. In the (Z) we held exhaustion with a 40190 low and have bounced $211.0. Yesterday left the minor bullish reversal warned about below—we rallied $47 tics from the 41332 open. These are ON HOLD. The failure back below 41442 (-4.5 tics per/hour) now warns of decent pressure. Get long on a decent penetration above 41397 (-4.5 tics per/hour starting at 7:00 am) and/or on a pullback thereafter and look for decent strength. Get long on a decent penetration above 41596 (-4 tics per/hour) and/or on a pullback thereafter and look for 55.00 min, 370.00 (+) max. If we break above decently and back below decently, look for decent pressure.”At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,045.16 per ounce for a loss of 1.10% on the week and 1.42% on the day.
Gold is stuck but miners are generating bags of cash
(Kitco News) – Gold’s months-long correction appears to be nearing its end, but prices continue to consolidate near critical support around $4,000 an ounce. The market remains caught between gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset and the pressure of rising real yields.Persistent inflation has reinforced expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. This has weighed on investment demand and dampened enthusiasm for the metal itself.Yet investors focused solely on the gold price may be missing a more compelling story unfolding in the mining sector.While gold has struggled to regain momentum, second-quarter earnings have highlighted just how dramatically the industry’s fundamentals have improved. Despite gold’s 30% drop from its first-quarter highs, miners still benefited from an average gold price of more than $4,400 an ounce during the second quarter. More importantly, investors should be paying attention to what companies are doing with the cash they are generating.Last week, Bank of America maintained a constructive view on gold equities even as it lowered its 2026 gold price forecast. Earnings season suggests that view may be increasingly supported by company fundamentals rather than expectations for higher metal prices.Many of the industry’s leading producers are generating record free cash flow, strengthening their balance sheets, returning money to shareholders, and continuing to invest in long-life projects that can support future production growth.Agnico Eagle delivered a record quarter, generating $1.335 billion in free cash flow while returning a record $625 million to shareholders. At the same time, the company continues to advance major growth projects, including Odyssey, Hope Bay, and Upper Beaver.Kinross reported more than $725 million in free cash flow, increased its net cash position to $1.9 billion, and returned roughly 40% of its free cash flow to shareholders. The company also highlighted the long-term potential of its Lobo-Marte project, which could become one of the sector’s lowest-cost operations.Even Alamos Gold, despite reducing guidance following seismic issues at Young-Davidson, generated $143.5 million in free cash flow while continuing to fund its Island Gold District expansion internally.What’s becoming harder to ignore is that many gold miners are no longer operating as simple leveraged bets on the gold price. After years of focusing on costs, balance sheets, and capital discipline, a growing number are producing the kind of consistent cash flow that investors typically reward in other sectors.Meanwhile, investors remain heavily focused on AI-linked stocks, many of which are trading at elevated valuations. That enthusiasm may be warranted, but it has also drawn attention away from areas of the market where valuations remain comparatively attractive.For investors looking beyond momentum trades, gold miners increasingly stand out as a sector offering both value and improving fundamentals. That’s a combination that has become surprisingly rare in today’s market.